2023 Corn Planting Pace

For the week ending April 30, 2023 (Week #17), the USDA reported 26% of the U.S. corn crop had been planted. How does this stack up, and when is the critical planting window? 

Figure 1 shows weekly corn planting progress since 2010. Overall, the current situation is fairly close to average or normal. The average pace for Week #17 since 2000 is 31%. The current pace, 26%, is the 13th fastest pace of the last 24 years, just slightly behind the median. 

At the extremes, the planting pace has occasionally exceeded the halfway mark by early May. For instance, 68% of the crop was planted by the end of Week #17 in 2010 and 53% in 2012. On the slow end, only 5% of the crop was planted at this point in 2013, while 15% was planted during the infamous prevented planting year of 2019. Last year, Week #17 progress was only 14%.

 Figure 1. U.S. Corn Planting Progress, 2010-2023. Data Source: USDA NASS. 

A feature of the national corn planting progress is how quickly the crop gets planted in early May. This can be indirectly seen in Figure 1 by the upward, nearly vertical, bend in the lines. The exception, of course, is 2019. While the pace was slow throughout the year, it wasn’t until later in May (Week #19) that conditions turned abnormal. For comparison, 2013 was a much slower planting start, as mentioned earlier, but progress jumped from 28% in Week #19 to 71% completed in Week #20. The lesson here is that it’s the slow finishes that need to be minded. 

Figure 2 shows the average weekly gains in U.S. corn planting progress. This year, progress in Week #17 was 12 percentage points ahead of the week prior. This is slightly behind the average gain of 15.6 percentage points. Week #18 and Week #19 are also critical planting weeks, as 19.8 and 17.3 percentage points, respectively, are the average gains.

Figure 2. Average Gain in U.S. Corn Planting Progress. Data Source: USDA NASS.

Wrapping it up

U.S. corn planting is entering the May Sprint, where large weekly gains in corn planting progress are the norm. So far, the corn planting progress has been mostly normal in 2023. History shows that an average of 31% of the crop is planted by early May but has ranged from 5% (2013) to 68% (2010). 

While the current national situation isn’t alarming, keep in mind Weeks #17, #18, and #19 are critical for progress. In years like 2013, the pace significantly improved during these weeks. Conversely, 2019’s lackluster progress during these weeks had a big impact on the year’s prevented planting.