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A few weeks ago, we noted that higher corn plant populations have been the biggest source of trendline yield gains. This makes intuitive sense but doesn’t align with recent plant population trends, which reveal a plateau.

Since the 1980s, Iowa corn plant populations have increased by nearly 300 plants per acre annually. But in recent years, the measure has been mostly sideways. When considering the pace of ten-year segments, Iowa plant populations increased by more than 400 plants annually between 1988 and 1987. The +400 pace was repeated between 2002 and 2011. The most recent ten-year pace, however, is much lower. Even approaching zero.

The slowdown isn