November WASDE: Corn and Soybean Update

The USDA trimmed corn and soybean yields in its latest WASDE estimates. Corn yields were 0.7 bushels per acre lower, while soybeans were adjusted lower by 1.4 bushels per acre. On a percentage basis, the changes are even more dramatic; corn is lower by <1% and soybean yields are 2.6% lower.

Corn ending stocks are now estimated at 12.9% of usage, the lowest observation of the 2024/25 marketing year. The importance is that corn ending stocks are now below the long-run average (13.1%). Dwindling ending stocks has also been underway for the 2023/24 marketing year. Due to a large uptick in usage, 2023/24 ending stocks have dropped from nearly 15% a year ago to less than 12% today.

Soybean production shrank by 121 million bushels but was partially offset by lower usage estimates. The USDA adjusted export and domestic soybean crush lower by a total of 41 million bushels. While soybean ending stocks have fallen to 10.8% for the current market year, stocks remain above the long-run ratio of 8.3

Wrapping it up

The November WASDE largely closes out the market year’s production uncertainty. While adjustment to acreage and yield will still occur in the coming months, attention will now focus on usage. Will there continue to be improvements? Furthermore, attention will also start to focus on 2025 acreage.